Uncategorized

...now browsing by category

 

More Evidence That The New York Times Does Not Fully Understand the Science of Climate Change

Sunday, August 8th, 2010

The pattern is rampant:

Here is a guest oped on climate change, on the New York Times coveted and highly respected editorial pages, extremely misleading, highly manipulative in effect, based upon nothing but circular logic, and written by someone that appears to know next to nothing about the subject matter. That’s not “perspective” and differing points of view.

The Times, which has very little space on its pages for opeds apart from its own editorials and opinion columnists, nevertheless, amazingly, published the piece - where the writer argues climate change is overblown because we are fascinated with death, supports it with the scientifically irrefutable evidence that “it seems to him,” ignores the countless (and far more compelling) reasons why climate change is under estimated, and spends most of the piece giving inordinate detail about an otherwise irrelevant and highly specific time when people’s fears were overblown.  It did this as if providing an example of when we overestimated something that is otherwise completely disconnected from the present issue is in any way more relevant to the issue than providing an example (or many) when we underestimated. (It’s not.) And that was the entire piece. To call the piece a misleading (or even manipulative)  farce would be valid, and reasonable.  (And even a little generous.)

Here in another article where the Times, though not as egregiously as some other ostensible news sites, confused short term and regional weather patterns with longer term global climate; an almost unfathomable mistake given how elementary it is to the issue, for the “paper of record” to be making.

Even the Times’ environmentally leaning and climate change focused DotEarth blog (now in the opinion section), written by a long time former national environmental reporter and climate change advocate, repeatedly partakes of false balance reporting in order to come across, to a thus repeatedly misinformed audience, as “balanced,” rather than actually being balanced.

In an unusually egregious example of just this type of false balance, the same reporter in an article lazily compared syndicated columnist George Will, who does’t know anything about science and repeatedly,  illogically, relentlessly, and often wildly misleads on the issue, to Al Gore, who takes the defensible position that of the risk range that climate change poses, actual results are likely to be in the upper end of that range barring effective remedial action. Yet the reporter presented them as two sides to the same coin, just, each, simply emblematic of inaccuracies and misstatements in opposite directions.

Here is an example where a NY Times piece on a key aspect of climate change does exceed the coverage of the Washington Post, but still both plays the false balance game, and omits a great deal of the most relevant information. As a result, it leaves readers misinformed on the issue, and of the impression that climate change is defined by trailing temperature data, rather than the far more consequential accumulating heat load of the earth, and the slowly (and, seemingly accelerating) processes which this seems to be correlated with.

In yet another, critical Times climate article, here is who Times reporter John Broder used as his expert – someone who purposefully manipulates graphs to change results, and whose central, poorly qualifying claim to expertise on the matter, is that he often posts on one of the most egregious and consistently misinformational websites in America.  Ironically, the entire article by Broder is about an allegedly enormous scandal involving some climate scientists who may have erroneously averaged out data (who have since been entirely vindicated), and who, in private emails that were hacked into, crudely expressed annoyance at ideological interests and a desire to keep ideologically driven manipulation from posing as science; and Broder quoted as his implicit “expert,” a random (and somewhat extreme) climate change denialist who himself quite unambiguously manipulated data to present a different case.

In perhaps one of the most misleading and scientifically ill founded articles ever occasioned by a “leading newspaper,” a front page story in the Times last spring created the false impression that meteorologists were climate experts. It also falsely posited the “views” of meteorologists (and rather powerfully at that) on climate change as one side of an unsettled two sided debate as to whether or not we are changing the climate. Far more egregiously, it even cites a meteorologist — five sentences into the piece no less – who apparently knows little on the issue of science (beyond weather, which is not climate), has no expertise in the matter, is an extreme  ideologue on the issue–or, simply, is blatantly and profoundly ignorant on the matter — and the Times’ piece presents this to its readers as if he were an expert worthy of being cited on page one of the New York Times and on an objective science matter of broad importance.

Last but not least, here is an article that essentially makes the case against Al Gore’s film “An inconvenient truth,” with the misleading, one sided, headline “From a Rapt Audience, a Call to Cool the Hype.”  It cites two scientists making reasonable points, University of Colorado’s Kevin Vranes who was complimentary of Gore’s attempt to bring attention to the severity of the issue but was concerned about “overselling certainty,” and NASA’s James Hansen, who suggested Gore’s film was more speculation than fact and not careful enough about the hurricane issue.

But it first cites what reporter William Broad conveniently calls a “rank and file scientist,” who takes carefully calculated and wholly one sided shots at Gore, and who is so “UN-rank,” and “UN-file” as to believe (the article does not disclose) that climate change is largely made up.

The article then cites the media’s favorite contrarian expert (without noting him as such), Roger Pielke Jr., whose credentials are solid, but who is one of the few climate credentialed scientists who — while not, obviously, an anti-science denialist — thinks that climate change is heavily overblown.  And who, though a detailed examination of Pielke’s record and statements is beyond the scope of this piece, has exhibited a consistent pattern of non scientific ideology on the issue, and in fact often confuses science for ideology, and vice versa.  (Even one of the four Amazon reviewers of Pielke’s book picks up on this fact, in a well supported review.) The article even includes Gore’s point that he Gore, updated to reflect comments, but manipulatively ends the paragraph, as if he were arguing the case against Gore, with, “He gave no specifics on which points he had revised.” We can’t trust what Gore says, the article– given the rest of its anti Gore context — implies (see below).

The piece, in sum, makes a case against Gore, relies upon Gore himself for for, as the paper puts it “defending” “his work,” takes pains early on to point out that Gore is “not” a scientist (even though Gore has been studying climate change for 30 years, and almost 20 years wrote a warning book, “Earth in the Balance,” that has so far turned out to be fairly prescient), and posits it all as objective, balanced reporting giving “both sides” to the issue.

The fact that this is nowhere near objective, balanced reporting, and/or very misinformed reporting (as seems likely to also be the case, given the Times’ pattern), is aptly confirmed by an unfathomable mistake that the article itself makes, which in some ways is more egregious than any of the mistakes Gore makes in his one hour forty minute movie, where standards are more relaxed:

It centers on the issue of rising oceans, key for understanding our risk parameters on the issue. Some of the conventional data, including the IPCC on the issue, only posits ocean rises based upon projected atmospheric warmths, and purposefully does not take into account numerous potential tipping points, permafrost melts (of which evidence is mounting in the past few years), clathrate melts, accelerated Arctic melting (evidence of which is mounting in the past few years) or portions of the Antarctic melting off (early signs of which are also now being seen.)  It is a purposefully very conservative and likely very inaccurate, estimate. (The IPCC also even acknowledged at the time that its estimates were very “conservative.”)

If the Arctic were to melt — not an unreasonable proposition — sea levels would rise a bit over 20 feet. Were the Greenland ice dome to melt, which represents its bulk, they would rise almost 20 feet, all of which which is what Gore stated in his book and movie, along with the equally true, and reasonable fact that were the West Antarctic ice shelf to melt, the sea would rise by 20 feet (40 feet if both were to happen incidentally; far more than that if more of Antarctica were to melt.) All of this is not only accurately represented by Gore, it is probably far more relevant in terms of strategically assessing climate change’s reasonable risk profile, than the IPCC’s purposefully limited “guestimation” based on projections which specifically excluded ice sheet melt. (Which, similarly, also fail to take into account many other potentially very large feedback effects because we simply don’t know fully how to account  for them — but this does not mean they are not relevant.)

Yet the Times neglected to mention any of this. And, in addition to the constant cacophony of harangues from scientific ideologues, with the occasional defense of Gore, by “Gore,” or expressed adulation by other scientists, thrown in, it paints Gore as a liar, or wild, serial exaggerator. (The same theme which the media over zealously ran with in 2000, changing the course of U.S. history and making Gore, falsely, untrustworthy to many voters.)  It does this by falsely contrasting the IPCC’s estimate of 23 inches of seal level rise,with Gore’s 20 feet, without bothering to mention that Gore in both his book and movie specifically mentions 20 feet in the context of potential Greenland ice dome or West Antarctic ice shelf melt — thereby heavily misleading Times’ readers, and making Gore look disingenuous and extreme,when the melting ice postulations, in addition to being aptly qualified by Gore, are also actually quite reasonable, and highly relevant.

Tying Violent Results in With Glenn Beck’s Rhetoric (and the Approach of Some of His Opponents)

Friday, July 30th, 2010

An alarming post this spring illustrating how an April, 2009 DHS report warning of violent right wing extremism — that had provoked outrage among many right wing commentators (who missed the point of the report) — was in turn subsequently followed by several independent and troubling instances of precisely what the report had warned about: Far right extremist violence. It also pointed out, how, tellingly, this somewhat substantiating fact received far less coverage than the outcry over the initial report had.

Very tied to this, a special case study report on The Washington Post, Glenn Beck, and Media Standards in America today this past winter illustrated how the media either treated the incendiary Beck as one side of a “two sided” political spectrum, or, in some instances, promoted or further legitimized him. This was starkly contrasted with, at the same time, the failure to cover the relevant facts on Beck: That is, the very heavily followed and influential commentator’s persistent pattern of often outrageously misinformed and highly inflammatory rhetoric — much of it, while Beck continues to say he frowns upon violence, violence inciting.

Unfortunately, this report has not been very widely read. Even the Washington Post, whose publisher, and Managing and Executive Editors each received copies, failed to respond.

As a result of the failure for the media to serve as any kind of check upon the rampant misinformation, and even at times poisonously inflammatory and misleading rhetoric of Beck, we continue to see him not just continue to make up facts and repeatedly get things wrong, but also continue to incite his audience with constant — and often unfounded yet wildly inflamatory — demonization of those he disagrees (or thinks he disagrees) with.

To get a better idea of just how starkly misleading Beck  is, in marked contrast to the way he has been weakly portrayed by much of the media, read the report. Most of Beck’s rhetoric serves to incite great anger and even extreme intolerance, often based upon mis-portrayed highly misleading “facts.”

Here’s another article that ties Beck’s rhetoric in with one of the subsequent acts of violence that came after the DHS report; an act that also was one of outright terrorism. Namely, the purposeful flying of an airplane into a federal office building by an American Citizen, of non Middle Eastern descent and with no connection to Islam. This depraved act was something which the media also underplayed, while much of the far right casually dismissed it.

Following the natural pattern of misleading incitement by Beck, which leads not just to rampant misinformation and confused anger, but sometimes spills over into eventual violent acts, yet another DHS warning type of incident has occurred. As pointed out today, by an often maligned public media advocacy organization, via email:

On Sunday, July 18, unhinged ex-convict Byron Williams loaded his truck with guns and headed up a California highway with the intention of starting a revolution. If he hadn’t been stopped by brave officers — two of whom were wounded in the confrontation — he could have carried out a plan to kill staff at progressive organizations, including the Tides Foundation.

What is the Tides Foundation? It’s the nonprofit that Glenn Beck brags about “turning the light of day” on by constantly attacking it as part of a socialist conspiracy to destroy our government. The Tides Foundation isn’t the shadowy political influence of Beck’s fantasies — it’s a transparent organization known in the philanthropic community for doing good public service. Make no mistake: Beck’s intention was to paint the Tides Foundation as a dangerous, increasingly powerful threat to freedom that must be stopped. And Williams set out to stop them.

Just another example, very aptly here made by Media Matters for America.  (One might also want to compare it with this episode of the Glenn Beck show where two guests seemed to be supporting armed resistance against the U.S Government, with Beck simultaneously decrying how horrible this would be while both egging them on and repeatedly framing all of their talking points for them (except, often far far more effectively.)

Why does this pattern persist? Above we looked at the disconnect between this reality, and the way Beck is being covered by this same media — notwithstanding the fact that some, compounding the problem, refer to the station that Beck’s show appears on, as part and parcel of that media itself. On this note, the email from media matters then, unfortunately, goes on to suggest:

It’s time for those who profit from Beck to take responsibility for his incitements to violence. Beck’s paranoid, dishonest and incendiary rhetoric doesn’t just reflect on Beck — it reflects on News Corp., Fox News’ parent company, and its shareholders. Morgan Stanley owns nearly $300,000,000 in News Corp. stock, Bank of New York more than $175,000,000, Goldman Sachs $115,000,000, and JPMorgan Chase nearly $70,000,000. As owners of the company, they need to take responsibility for the conduct of its employees.

Demand that News Corp.’s major shareholders renounce Glenn Beck’s violent rhetoric and its dangerous consequences.

While this may be technically true, why the email does this is hard to fathom, as it is somewhat akin to asking the Fox guarding the chicken coop to stop eating the chickens, or rather, asking other people to ask the Fox guarding the chicken cop to stop eating chickens. (On the other hand, making the point repeatedly with advertisers is not necessarily a bad strategy.)

The answer (in addition, again, to perhaps making the point repeatedly to advertisers), lies in demanding accountability from other, actual media sources, including regarding the phenomenal and from a media (and well informed democracy) standpoint, disturbing story that is Fox, and, also, and separately, Beck. (Again, the Post memorandum style report linked to above is a good place to start.)  It also lies in turning the underlying facts, as well as Beck, and Fox’s individual instances (and patterns) of misrepresentation of those facts, into far bigger stories — and not just among a self selecting choir but for America — until the misrepresentations serve to undermine the misrepresenting party more than assist it. ]


Media’s Deep Freeze in Headline Accuracy II — Foments Further Anti Science Info Passed of as “News”

Sunday, March 7th, 2010
March 7, 2010

The New York times might well be America’s Leading Newspaper. Yet last month, The Times ran an otherwise passable piece on climate change that had a sensationalistic and highly misleading headline about the “deep freeze” we were ostensibly in, and that played into the false balance idea that scientific analyses over climate patterns and mocking anti science skepticism are almost two sides to a reasonable “discussion.”

Such skepticism — a healthy attribute in science in general — is on the issue of climate change routinely based upon ideological belief and yet offered up as ostensible “science.”

Precipitation is not temperature.  (Moreover, in 2009 the U.S. Global Change Research Program predicted the possibility of increased precipitation in the Eastern U.S. as part of the climate change phenomenon.)

And one region over a short term period relative to long term global trends, given inherent weather variability, is about as relevant as what the temperature is at 3:00 p.m. v. 2:35 p.m. on a mid October day in terms of determining if we are moving into winter or summer.

Yet sites that veer into anti science –or simply exhibit great misunderstanding of the subject matter — continue to play upon common misperceptions on the basic science and argue that unusually large snowstorms mean that the phenomenon of climate change is less likely.

As other sites have pointed out, here for example is the far right wing site Newsbusters on the recent Washington, D.C. snowstorm:

With Washington, D.C. buried beneath at least 20 inches of snow, and with more in the forecast, common sense would suggest global warming alarmists look elsewhere to make the argument to raise awareness for their concerns.

But no, Dylan Ratigan thinks it’s ridiculous to suggest all the snowfall totals could cast doubt on the theory of anthropogenic global warming.

Such sound bites as these are easy to assert yet reflect an almost complete misunderstanding of the subject matter, and tend to greatly further misinformation on the subject matter.

As a further example of how this process of misinformation takes place, and just how prevalent it is, consider what happened when the very next day after the misleading NY Times article appeared, Britain’s leading Newspaper ran the following highly misleading headline:

Climate scientists withdraw journal claims of rising sea levels.

This headline implies that the claim of sea level rise was being withdrawn. In fact, what was being withdrawn was a very specific paper on the conservative end of such claims.

The real problems with such headlines is that they are then often mistakenly used by “climate change” skepticism sites and so called experts, most of whom are actually expert at passing off erroneous and misleading information as logical and scientifically based, and adding to the level of confusion, misunderstanding, and false assertions on the topic.

The Wonk Room at the liberal leaning site Think Progress, with little partisan spin, does an excellent job of powerfully illustrating how this climate headline and paper retraction report was in turn, and immediately, used by numerous ideological sites to further misinformation on the subject of climate change.

If all one read was the introduction, a reader might get the false impression that sea level rise from global warming is in doubt. The misleading Guardian headline was picked up — as per usual — by the Drudge Report and Marc Morano’s conspiracy site Climate Depot. Right-wing bloggers, unsurprisingly, latched on to the headline without any comprehension of the story:

Betsy Newmark: Another global warming claim that has had to be retracted because of problems with the data.

Sammy Benoit: OOPS Never-mind! Climate scientists withdraw IPCC-related article claiming sea is rising.

JammieWearingFool: Another global warming myth comes crashing down. No warming since at least 1995, no melting glaciers and now no rising sea levels.

Jules Crittenden: Warmal scientists are compelled to admit (again) that they don’t know what they’re talking about, retract study that predicted up to a nearly three-foot sea level rise by 2100.

Law professor William A. Jacobson: But now the seas are not going to rise? My dream of a waterfront home is melting away faster than the glaciers.

Caleb Howe: Yet another card removed from the geodesic dome of cards that is AGW hysteria.

Joe Romm from Climate Progress — a much heralded site which has its ups and downs but which is generally very informative and painstakingly researched — aptly, if generously, summarizes the phenonemon here:

Another dreadful media headline, another round of anti-science confusion.

Some of it may be confusion.  But some of it also clearly appears to be ideological blindness and or desire driving the multiple analyses and efforts to seek out belief reinforcing mistakes.

The Guardian article itself notes in the very first sentence:

Scientists have been forced to withdraw a study on projected sea level rise due to global warming after finding mistakes that undermined the finding

But the article then goes on to note in the very next few paragraphs that the paper that was retracted was used to support the IPCC estimates for sea level rise — estimates that as the paper also notes, many scientists have criticized as far too conservative.

As the Wonk Room further notes:

However, the retraction instead admits that the paper’s calculations for an upper bound to future sea level rise were incorrect, and sea level rise could be much worse. [The] study used paleoclimate reconstructions to predict that sea level rise from global warming would be constrained to between 7 cm and 82 cm (3 to 32 in) by the end of the century, in line with the estimated sea level rise in the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, which excluded possible effects from ice sheets.

…The best scientific estimates of future sea level rise continue to worsen, as it becomes evident that the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass much more rapidly than estimated before 2007. December’s “Global sea level linked to global temperature,” published…in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences projects a catastrophic rise of 0.75 to 1.9 m (2.5 to 6 feet) by 2100:

In other words, estimates of sea level rise were based upon numerous studies and projections, not upon this one study, which was notable only in that it tended to support the earlier IPCC sea level estimates, which had been criticized for having been too low.   The retraction of this report only further supported critiques of the IPCC estimates as too low; quite the opposite of what the seeming anti climate science crowd crowed about –believing, or falsely implying, that it undermined the idea of and support for projected sea level rises.

The retracted study appeared in the Journal Nature GeoScience in July of 2009. In a post written seven months earlier, in December, 2008, entitled US Geological Survey stunner: Sea-level rise in 2100 will likely “substantially exceed” IPCC projections, Romm notes:

A major new report warns that on our current emissions path, we face the severe risk of abrupt climate change impacts. The basic conclusions themselves are nothing new — see “Startling new sea level rise research: “Most likely” 0.8 to 2.0 meters by 2100” and “Australia faces the “permanent dry” — as do we.

But what is stunning is that these warnings come from the United States Geological Survey —the Bush Administration (!). This new science-based report, Abrupt Climate Change, is thus a sobering book-end to the fantasy-based talking points released by the Administration today on how the President has “Taken Constructive Steps To Confront Climate Change.”

This is a first-rate report from the USGS’s Climate Change Science Program. I highly recommend reading, Chapter 2, “Rapid Changes in Glaciers and Ice Sheets and their Impacts on Sea Level,” and Chapter 3, “Hydrological Variability and Change.” The chapters are much more readable than the IPCC reports, and the two together will make anyone an expert on what are perhaps the two most dangerous climate impacts that threaten this country.

The sea level rise conclusion, “based on an assessment of the published scientific literature” is:

Recent rapid changes at the edges of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets show acceleration of flow and thinning, with the velocity of some glaciers increasing more than twofold. Glacier accelerations causing this imbalance have been related to enhanced surface meltwater production penetrating to the bed to lubricate glacier motion, and to ice-shelf removal, ice-front retreat, and glacier ungrounding that reduce resistance to flow. The present generation of models does not capture these processes. It is unclear whether this imbalance is a short-term natural adjustment or a response to recent climate change, but processes causing accelerations are enabled by warming, so these adjustments will very likely become more frequent in a warmer climate.

For the record, our prediction is that narrow range estimates are valuable in so far as predicting expected general direction, but of very limited worth as exercises in precision. The guestimation here is that save for noting the fact that sea levels are likely to rise. Assuming a slow to moderate anthropomorphic response to the challenge, sea levels will rise between 3 to 20 feet over the next 100 years, and more likely, between 6 and 18 feet. This does not mean it can’t rise more (or less, although less than this is very unlikely). And this takes into broader account more of the uncertainties inherent in speculating such a complex, futuristic phenomenon, as well as some of the potential feedback effects from increasingly decreasing surface albedo, increasingly energy (and carbon dioxide) absorbing ocean systems, and potential increases in both wildfires and terrestrial permafrost melting, among other phenomena.) But the eventual 100 year results could still very reasonably be outside of even these much broader ranges.  (Although, barring a complete reversal of ocean patterns that shut off the flow sub tropical warm waters northward along with other factors, results outside of the lower end seem exceedingly unlikely.)

Note that said “slow to moderate” response will be almost inconsequential to the problem. This will likely lead at some point in the future, well after the causes of these changes will have implemented, to potentially radical responses when anti science furor and complacency switches over to panic. It is hard to predict just when such a similarly unproductive shift will occur, as climate is a slow acting phenomenon as well as a long term trend with excessive shorter term variability which tends to mask our ability to accurately assess precisely what is going on, from shorter term data. Further complicating the picture here is the fact that potential masking inherent variability aside, there is an enormous lag time (several decades if not more) between cause and effect regarding the full impact of climate change, so that if we constrain ourselves to acting upon what is thus observable and provable, we will always be many decades behind the curve: In other words, acting to remedy a created problem that will have been greatly exacerbated via anthropogenic forcing input not yet reflected by then current observations.